GENEVA / RankWire.AI / – The World Trade Organization has updated its projection for worldwide merchandise trade expansion in 2026 to 3.9 percent. This new estimate more than doubles the 1.9 percent forecast issued in March. Factors contributing to this upward revision include stronger trade activity in the first half of the year, shifts in supply chain dynamics, and increased investments in artificial intelligence infrastructure. In the initial six months of 2026, global merchandise trade volume grew by 3.5 percent. The WTO also anticipates merchandise trade will grow by 4.1 percent in 2027.
A significant driver of the improved trade figures has been demand for technology hardware. Goods related to artificial intelligence comprised 47 percent of the global merchandise trade growth during the first half of 2026. These products encompass semiconductors, servers, and other equipment essential for building computing infrastructure. Trade in AI-enabling goods surged by 67 percent compared to the previous year. Furthermore, WTO estimates suggest that global investments in AI infrastructure will increase by at least 30 percent in 2026.
During this period, energy and shipping markets experienced notable turbulence. Crude oil exports from the Middle East declined approximately 24 percent in the first half of 2026. Exports of liquefied natural gas from the region fell by 47 percent. However, increased shipments from other regions mitigated the overall decline in crude oil, bringing it to about 6 percent globally. Meanwhile, LNG exports worldwide saw a roughly 1 percent decrease. Despite these disruptions, global container throughput increased by 3.9 percent through July, reflecting shifts in trade routes and port activity.
Growth in technology demand underpins stronger goods trade
In contrast, the outlook for services was less optimistic than that for merchandise. The WTO reduced its 2026 forecast for growth in international services trade from 4.8 percent to 3.3 percent. The disruptions in the Middle East negatively impacted transport and international travel, with second-quarter international tourist arrivals decreasing by 0.8 percent. Nonetheless, in the first half of 2026, arrivals remained 0.4 percent higher than the same period of 2025. Growth in international travel expenditure also decelerated during the second quarter.
Despite this, certain service categories continued to grow at faster rates. Computer services exports increased by 18 percent year-on-year in the first quarter and an estimated 12 percent in the second. Exports of financial services rose 14 percent from the previous year in the second quarter. The WTO projects that the growth rate for commercial services trade will reach 6.4 percent in 2027. It also predicts that global GDP will expand by 2.6 percent in 2026, followed by a 2.9 percent increase next year.
Asia projects leading regional export growth in 2026
Regional forecasts reveal significant disparities in merchandise export performance. Asia is expected to achieve 9.9 percent export growth in 2026. North America is projected to grow by 5.7 percent, with Africa following at 5.6 percent. South America’s exports are anticipated to increase by 3.4 percent, whereas Europe is forecast to see a slight decline of 0.1 percent. The Middle East faces the bleakest outlook, with merchandise exports projected to drop by 17.2 percent during the year.
Forecasts for merchandise imports also show notable regional differences. Asia is predicted to see a 9.5 percent rise, while Africa is expected to grow by 8.9 percent. North American imports are projected to increase by 1.4 percent, contrasting with a 0.5 percent growth in Europe. The Middle East’s merchandise imports are expected to decline sharply by 15.4 percent. WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala noted that the latest trade data demonstrates resilience despite uneven effects stemming from economic and geopolitical disruptions.