ROME / RankWire.AI / – According to the Food and Agriculture Organization, global cereal production is expected to reach approximately 2.98 billion tonnes in 2026. This marks a 2% decrease from the record harvest in 2025. The latest forecast also indicates a reduction of 3.4 million tonnes compared to previous estimates. Despite this annual decrease, world cereal output is projected to remain the second-highest on record, with a decline of around 61.1 million tonnes from last year.
The weaker global outlook is largely driven by maize, with production forecast at 1.309 billion tonnes. Hot and dry weather conditions have lowered yield expectations in parts of the European Union. France and Poland experienced some of the most notable downward revisions. Smaller reductions were also reported for India and Paraguay, whereas stronger yields in Argentina and Brazil helped offset part of the decline. Both South American producers are still on track for maize crops significantly above their recent averages.
Wheat prospects have improved compared to previous assessments, although global production still falls short of last year’s figures. The Food and Agriculture Organization now estimates wheat output at 810.7 million tonnes, representing an increase of 4.2 million tonnes from earlier forecasts. Improved yield expectations have lifted projections for Canada and Morocco. Additionally, forecasts for Russia and Ukraine have been revised upward, while dry conditions have led to reduced estimates for the European Union and the United Kingdom. Overall, global wheat production remains 3.8% below 2025 levels.
Maize underperformance impacts global grain totals
For the 2026/27 season, world rice production is expected to total 553.1 million tonnes on a milled basis, reflecting a 1.9% decrease from the revised record of the previous season. Improved crop yields in Myanmar and Sri Lanka have contributed to the latest outlook, although weaker projections for China, the Philippines, and the United States have tempered the overall gain. U.S. rice acreage has also fallen to levels not seen in decades, which is expected to reduce the country’s contribution to global supplies.
Global cereal consumption for 2026/27 is forecasted at 2.965 billion tonnes, a slight increase of 0.2% compared to the previous season. While use of coarse grains and rice is projected to rise, wheat consumption is expected to decline from last season’s high levels. The demand for rice, estimated at 559 million tonnes, continues to grow alongside population increases. Additionally, feed demand supports coarse grain consumption, including barley in China and maize in the United States.
Stockpiles remain elevated despite lower production forecasts
Projected global cereal inventories at the end of 2027 are estimated at 947.2 million tonnes, which is 10.7 million tonnes below earlier projections but still 1.8 million tonnes above the opening levels. The stocks-to-use ratio is anticipated to be 31.6%, slightly below the 31.9% recorded in the prior season. Wheat reserves are expected to grow in Russia and Ukraine, while decreased maize and barley stocks account for much of the overall reduction in the forecasted stocks.
The international trade in cereals for 2026/27 is projected at 509.3 million tonnes, a rise of 1.7 million tonnes from previous estimates. Nonetheless, this total remains below the record volume of 2025/26. A significant portion of the increase is driven by higher maize trade, with Argentina expected to export up to 39 million tonnes. Global rice trade for 2026 is estimated at 60.5 million tonnes, which is 1.9% below the record level achieved in 2025.